Built on real research
Our predictions are based on WHO guidelines, CDC recommendations, and peer-reviewed studies. Here's exactly what research backs each feature — and where the evidence runs out.
Most baby apps call their predictions “smart” or “magical.” We publish the math, cite the papers, and tell you when the science is unsettled.
Important Disclaimer
LilSense predictions are designed to help you anticipate your baby's needs, not replace your parental judgment.
Every baby is unique. Our predictions combine:
- Evidence-based population data from WHO, CDC, and peer-reviewed research
- Your baby's individual patterns learned from your logged events
Predictions become more personalized as you log more events. After 2 weeks of consistent logging, predictions are primarily based on YOUR baby's actual patterns. Always consult your pediatrician for medical advice.
Evidence by Category
Total Sleep Duration
Strong EvidenceHow many hours babies typically sleep in a 24-hour period, including naps.
Sources: WHO 2019, Galland 2012, AASM 2016
Night Sleep Stretches
Moderate EvidenceHow long babies typically sleep at night before waking.
Sources: WHO 2019, Galland 2012
Feeding Intervals
Strong EvidenceHow often babies typically need to eat based on age.
Sources: CDC 2024, Johns Hopkins, WHO 2023
Wake Windows
No EvidenceHow long babies can stay awake between sleep periods.
No peer-reviewed evidence available. Predictions based solely on your baby's individual patterns.
About Wake Windows
Important: “Wake windows” (how long babies can stay awake between sleeps) have no peer-reviewed scientific evidence. A PubMed search returns zero studies on this term.
LilSense does NOT use population averages for wake window predictions. Instead, we learn your baby's individual patterns from your logged events. This means wake window predictions require more logged data to become accurate.
Source: Emily Oster, ParentData (2023) - “Are Newborn Wake Windows Real?”Read more →
How we predict — the math
No black box. No proprietary “AI.” Just a statistical model we're happy to explain in public.
We weight recent data more heavily
Your baby's behavior from this week matters more than from a month ago — but last month isn't discarded. We use exponential smoothing with a factor of α = 0.25, meaning each new event pulls the prediction 25% toward the most recent value.
smoothed = α × new + (1 − α) × previous
We tell you when we're not confident
Every prediction has a confidence score. We track variance using Welford's online algorithm and compute intervals with a t-distribution. If your baby's patterns are inconsistent — or if we just don't have enough data yet — we lower the confidence instead of pretending we know.
Confidence = 60% sample size + 40% consistency.
Predictions get more personal as you log more
We start with population data from WHO, CDC, and peer-reviewed studies, and shift toward your baby's own patterns as we learn more about them.
Cold start
Fewer than 3 events
100% population data (WHO / CDC / peer-reviewed)
Learning
3 to 14 events
Linear blend — population + your baby
Personalized
15+ events
100% your baby's own patterns
What this is not
This is not machine learning. It is not AI. No large language model ever sees your baby's logs. No neural network is trained on your family's data.
It is a well-understood statistical method — the same class of math used in weather forecasting and inventory planning — applied to peer-reviewed pediatric sleep and feeding data. It works because the underlying research is good, not because the algorithm is clever.
Full Source List
Click any source to view the original publication
Guidelines on Physical Activity, Sedentary Behaviour and Sleep for Children Under 5 Years of Age
World Health Organization
World Health Organization (2019)
WHO guidelines establishing evidence-based recommendations for sleep duration in infants and young children. Recommends 14-17 hours for 0-3 months, 12-16 hours for 4-11 months, and 11-14 hours for 1-2 years.
View source
Normal Sleep Patterns in Infants and Children: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies
Galland BC, Taylor BJ, Elder DE, Herbison P
Sleep Medicine Reviews (2012)
Systematic review of 34 studies establishing reference values for infant sleep. Found mean sleep duration of 12.8 hours (range 9.7-15.9) for infants 0-12 months, with 0-3.4 night wakings for newborns.
View source
Recommended Amount of Sleep for Pediatric Populations: A Consensus Statement
Paruthi S, Brooks LJ, D'Ambrosio C, et al.
Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine (2016)
American Academy of Sleep Medicine consensus statement based on systematic review. Recommends 12-16 hours for infants 4-12 months and 11-14 hours for children 1-2 years, including naps.
View source
How Much and How Often to Feed Infant Formula
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
CDC Infant and Toddler Nutrition (2024)
CDC guidelines for infant feeding frequency. Recommends feeding every 2-3 hours for 0-3 months, every 3-4 hours for 3-6 months, and 4-5 feedings per day by 6 months.
View source
Feeding Guide for the First Year
Johns Hopkins Medicine
Johns Hopkins Health Library (2024)
Clinical feeding guidelines from Johns Hopkins describing typical feeding patterns, amounts, and schedules from birth through 12 months.
View source
Guideline for Complementary Feeding of Infants and Young Children 6-23 Months of Age
World Health Organization
World Health Organization (2023)
WHO guidelines on introducing solid foods and transitioning feeding patterns for infants 6-23 months.
View source
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